GFF Podcast

GFF Summit live show: Geopolitics, economics and capital markets

• Clearstream • Season 4 • Episode 8

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Join us for this special live show recorded at the GFF Summit 2025. Dive into the insights and analysis from our keynote speakers: Charles Lichfield, Deputy Director of Geoeconomics at the Atlantic Council and James Pomeroy, Global Economist at HSBC, plus a special interview with Harri Vikstedt, Senior Director for Financial Markets at the Bank of Canada.

With this year’s key theme “Navigating Uncertainty: Geopolitics and Market Dynamics” - get our expert perspectives on the global economy in 2025.

Speaker 1:

Hello and welcome back to the GFF podcast coming to you live on direct from the GFF summit at the European Convention Center in Luxembourg, and it has already been an incredible event. We're coming to the end of the summit now, but over the last three days the Central Bank and Sovereign Wealth Fund Forum and, of course, at the main GFF itself we've had some fantastic speakers. We've covered a lot of hot topics, not least, of course, everyone looking with anticipation and with bated breath over at events that are happening, obviously in the US regarding their fiscal policy and their trade policies and how that might affect international markets. Our guests are talking about that with us, as I have been roving around with the mobile virtual studio to grab comments from three very special guests. We have Charles Litchfield, who is the Deputy Director of the Geoeconomic Center for the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, and he'll be talking to us.

Speaker 1:

He was the keynote on day one. We have Harry Wichstead joining us, who is the senior director for markets at the Bank of Canada to give us some insights into the sort of central bank perspective on current global affairs. And finally, james Pomeroy, who is the global economist with his predictions for 2025, looking at the economic currents. He's from HSBC, of course, and he was our day two speaker. All of this and more, but first of all let me introduce my co-host, the man without whom none of this would have been organized, mr Christian Rossler. Christian, welcome back.

Speaker 2:

Yes, happy to be back, and happy to be back in person, together with you here after three days at the GFF Summit in Luxembourg. And I must say I mean the overarching theme of the GFF Summit navigating uncertainty, geopolitics and market dynamics was chosen not only because it has a catchy ring to it, but really because it's spot on what's going on in the world today and it's reflected, obviously, in the program. We can dive a little bit into that, but also the speakers and the guests that you choose and selected to be on this show.

Speaker 1:

And, of course, live on the main GFF stage. We had Stephanie Eckermann, the new CEO of Clearstream, who gave a fantastic framing and setup for day one, and, of course, on day two, we had Robert Boyce, the new CEO of Eurex, again from our partner there, giving another great sort of tone-setting talk for the day. And, christian, we had a very special session, didn't we? At the Central Bank and Sovereign Wealth Fund Forum, with some very special guests, starting off, of course, with our guests from Ukraine.

Speaker 2:

Yes, I think that was really the session that warmed up the Central Bank and Sovereign Wealth Fund Forum. You discussion with both Uris the Deputy Governor, yuri Heleti, and the commissioner for debt management in Ukraine, uri Butsa.

Speaker 1:

They painted a really interesting picture actually of how you manage an economy that transitions from peacetime to wartime. Dramatically. Suddenly it's a catastrophic overnight event and you need to make sure you secure payment systems, all the necessary infrastructure to keep money flowing. This then led to a great conversation about capital markets and the sort of accession issues and challenges that face countries that are within Europe but outside the EU in terms of accessing capital market mechanisms, both here in the EU but, of course, then with the IMF and the US as well. So it was a really insightful and these guys are incredibly positive and resilient, working in very challenging circumstances, and so much so I think they deserve their own episode of the GFF. So we've got to invite them back on for a future show and they did say they'd come back on, by the way.

Speaker 2:

So stay tuned for that, that. If you're listening, yeah, what I think, what I learned is that they're very pragmatic about, you know, their capital market. They need to react quickly and turn around quickly in order to fund themselves, and so I think that was actually to start the afternoon, to give you know reality check to the audience, and then we moved into okay, what's the European Union going to do about that from a capital market point of view? So the geopolitical necessity of the capital markets union was one of the panels. Oeli Cassou from Mundi. She was giving the private sector view and I, I think after that we had a coffee break and then we saw the second half more. You know what's market infrastructure, like Deutsche Börse and Eurex. What are they doing to make markets more stable and more resilient? So you had a great chat with Eric Tim Muller, hadn't you?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, Eric Tim Muller, obviously CEO of Eurex Clearing, really making the case for clearing, actually making the case for the fact that, since clearing has been rolled out and we have tighter regulatory structures within the EU, we have survived many shock market events that would have led to, you know, significant instability since 2008. And actually we've weathered them all very effectively, Something I think that was also echoed by Sarah Foucault Carrick, who was on a later panel from the European Stability Mechanism. She's the chief economist there and she was talking very much about the fact that the countries that engaged with the ESM and went through austerity and those challenges back, you know, in the last decade and now some of the highest growth economies in Europe. And now the focus has to be on harmonizing legal frameworks within the EU so that the capital markets union, the ECMS, can really come into full effect.

Speaker 2:

Yes, I was actually happy to see that we wrapped it up on a positive note.

Speaker 1:

And also one of our panelists, harry Vikstedt, from the Bank of Canada on the repo panel, and, of course, canada been through a lot of very rapid change in modernizing their regulatory structures, their repo market and, of course, with the CCMS rolling out there, which, of course, was built by Clearstream and, you know, represents a very modern, very high tech collateral management system. He gave us an interview later in the show, in fact, and that's going to be coming up after our next speaker, that is, charles Litchfield. 2025, what does the relationship look like between the US and the EU? This is the concern that everyone seems to be worried about right now.

Speaker 3:

People are right to be worried. President Trump doesn't really like the EU. He likes some individual countries within the EU and he has personal history with some of them, but he doesn't really like the institution. The EU also has a big trade surplus with the US and he has personal history with some of them, but he doesn't really like the institution. The EU also has a big trade surplus with the US. Another thing that Trump doesn't like, and another thing I'd say, is Trump doesn't really feel beholden to any traditions of US foreign policy. So the idea that the EU is a natural partner of the US and that the transatlantic relationship is important the sort of defaults for many presidents Trump doesn't really feel bound by them at all.

Speaker 3:

Nonetheless, there are a lot of strong points and positive points the EU can make to Trump. The EU is now purchasing much more oil and gas straight from the US, many more weapons straight from the US, and the EU is now tougher on China in a way that Trump should like Doesn't mean it's all going to be plain sailing. He's promised tariffs and there probably will be, across the board, a higher tariff rate, but not as close, not even close to some of the numbers he suggested during the campaign and then using this China lens toughness on China. The EU will never be able to go as far as the US 27 member states. A commitment to multilateralism, a feeling that the EU shouldn't intervene to stop European consumers from buying cheap Chinese products in some cases. So it's not going to be plain sailing, but I think the EU's done a pretty good job so far of putting it to Trump that the relationship is important and it's not as if they're doing nothing.

Speaker 1:

Now there's been a huge focus on tariffs, but what about fiscal reform? You mentioned the Digital Services Act. We know that Trump has a very strong supporter base now in Silicon Valley. The likes of Google and people like that want to have a different tax relationship for their EU outfits. Do you think that could be the sort of the left hand to the right hand of tariffs?

Speaker 3:

I think it's really ambiguous on the question of how US tech giants pay their tax in the EU.

Speaker 3:

So, on the one hand, trump doesn't like the digital services tax because he feels it's an unfair tax on successful US companies, and the EU is upset that those companies are American and therefore they're going after them.

Speaker 3:

That's an unfair assessment, but that is the one that Trump feels is correct.

Speaker 3:

But then, on the other hand, you have Trump's own Commerce Secretary, lutnick, who himself doesn't like how these companies optimize their tax arrangements through Ireland and other countries. So even within the Trump administration and this will not be the first or the last time you have a bit of a contradiction there. They don't like how the EU itself is trying to deal with tax optimization, but they also want to deal with tax optimization themselves, so that these companies pay tax in the US rather than in Europe. So I think the EU has an opportunity and it's good at this at slowing things down, at convincing the Trump administration that they both want the same thing. If a country like France unilaterally applies a digital service tax, then the Trump administration will react, but the EU, I think, is capable of slowing things down to the extent that Lutnik gets a little bit of what he wants, but the EU as a whole also manages to get a little bit of that tax income for services that are sold in the EU.

Speaker 1:

In terms of the EU getting what it wants. One of the big topics here at this Is GFF has been the capital markets union and the urgent need to have faster movement of capital to finance things like defense and obviously to finance green technologies. And you talked a bit about electric vehicles, connected vehicles and the very different attitudes, sort of trajectories perhaps, that the US and the EU are on. Do you think that there is a challenge facing the EU in terms of buying effective, cost effective green? Yeah?

Speaker 3:

I think there is a challenge. In the Draghi report they managed to identify some areas where it's not even worth trying to catch up with China. The EU used to be preeminent on solar panels. China took that preeminence and there's not much of an industry left in Europe. It's not worth wasting money on subsidies for the Europe to catch up again. Just use the cheap solar panels from China and that's good for carbon emissions, is the conclusion. I tend to catch up again. Just use the cheap solar panels from China and that's good for carbon emissions, is the conclusion. I tend to agree with it, but they don't want that to happen again. That's why the EU, despite many difficulties, with some countries kicking and screaming did agree to additional tariffs as countervailing duties on China, and that is a reaction to Chinese subsidies for their electric vehicles and their connected vehicles. Hopefully this will allow the EU sometime, and EU producers sometime, to catch up, make their own reorganization, their own competitiveness gains, their own economies of scale, so that there is a level playing field again.

Speaker 1:

You talked about Ukraine, the reconstruction and rebuild on the horizon. Do you think that we are nearing the end of that conflict or coming to a settlement, perhaps?

Speaker 3:

There is a division of labor that's sort of emerging, where President Trump does get to do his deal with Putin, which is what he wants and he wants to be seen to be doing but it appears he doesn't want to drop Ukraine. He realizes that that will make him look weak and therefore he's willing to consider continuing US support for Ukraine. He hasn't ruled that out, and if the Russians don't come to the table, he's willing to slap on more sanctions. The fear before he came back to power was that he'd remove all sanctions. So now the idea that the baseline that we currently have isn't going away and there could be even more is a little bit reassuring to Brussels.

Speaker 3:

Some things are less reassuring. This peace plan might involve Ukraine being asked to make not de jure, but some de facto territorial concessions, which I don't think Europeans are ready for, because that precedent is really bad and it means decades of putting much more money in defense. We should have done so earlier, of course, but decades of putting much more money in defense. We should have done so earlier, of course, but decades of putting much more money in defense, because that precedent is there. So I think it's a difficult conversation ahead and from what I've heard in Brussels they're still a little bit concerned about what may be in this Trump peace plan.

Speaker 1:

There has been an opinion expressed here by our Ukrainian guests that the defense of Ukraine is becoming very much a symbol, a totem perhaps, for the defense of Europe, because the experiences they have will then drive big defense spending costs within the EU. Do you think that that assessment is accurate, that actually the Ukrainian situation has become a sort of cipher for wholesale change across the EU in terms of their defense spending?

Speaker 3:

So you can answer that different ways. The Ukrainian experience of warfare and how they're fighting this war and heroically defending themselves, really overcoming really bad odds, to still have control of the majority of their territory three years later, it's really impressive and that has implications just for how we think about warfare. What sort of equipment you need, what sort of resources, how you communicate. Ukrainians have really taught us a lot of things that are very useful lessons, of course, at the cost of human suffering and lost lives, but there's a lot that has been learned from that and that's really impressive of the Ukrainians. And then, of course, there's the defense spending aspect.

Speaker 3:

Many countries neglected that. They're all catching up to 2%. The prospect of Trump coming back is one of the main factors. Let's be honest. It wasn't just the realization that we ought to do so. It's also countries realizing that Trump would single them out if they didn't. So there is more defense spending. There's the question of how we fund it in the long term and also how we make it more efficient joint investment, joint research, joint procurement. I don't think we're really there yet, but there are all sorts of interesting ideas out there.

Speaker 1:

Now regular listeners to the show will know that you made my day because you talked about central bank issued digital currencies. This has been a favorite topic of mine. Christian told me I've got to stop asking people about it, but he's too busy working right now, so I want to talk about Enbridge. The cross-border settlement issue with digital currency has been the nut that appears toughest to crack, and yet we've had some good experiments with the digital euro here in the UK, but Enbridge is one that you called out as being a real exemplar in that space. Are we going to see a central bank issued digital currency this year becoming the sort of settlement currency of the world?

Speaker 3:

I think we're still pretty far off it becoming in any way close to what the dollar is or even the euro sterling. The volumes just aren't the same. But I think setting that precedent and showing it's possible in the way that Enbridge has done, and also, I think the crucial point about Enbridge is that it's none of them are close US allies, but some of the participants aren't really close allies of China. So I know that it's the Hong Kong Monetary Authority that's really in charge here, but China is very enthusiastic about Enbridge. The fact that they managed to get the Saudis and the Thai central bank to join in, I think, shows you that there's interest in this, there's curiosity about how far it can go and there's real potential for creating a system that doesn't fall under Western jurisdictions, doesn't fall under the G, doesn't fall under the G7+, the sanctions coalition. So that's really an important precedent, especially the fact the Saudis got involved, because they've already experimented a little bit with having their oil settled in Yuan. So this is them showing that they have options to the US.

Speaker 1:

What do you think should be the primary focus for the EU in 2025? Is it the Capital Markets Union? Is it looking at enhancing their repo and debt financing markets to deal with the sort of growing debt crisis? What should be the primary economic focus that we'll all be talking about at the 2026 GFF?

Speaker 3:

It's competitiveness, and the Capital Markets union is one of the big priorities within the broader focus on competitiveness. Unfortunately, progress has been slow and we all know the reasons why. There are some member states that are dragging their feet and interests within those member states that dictate that. Hopefully, this new focus on competitiveness, the release of the competitiveness compass I think only this morning will help us break through some of that reluctance. The Capital Markets Union is a really big priority and then it fits within a broader competitiveness strategy.

Speaker 3:

I don't object to the EU's approach to regulation per se. It's something that EU citizens approve of. They feel they're different and prefer to be slightly more protected, slightly better regulated than some other markets. I think that's Europe's choice and that's fine, but it can't come at the expense of European prosperity and the competitiveness of European firms, because that actually means that you're less protected. If your firms aren't competitive, you're not influencing what's going on around the world, and so things can be dictated to you. So the focus on competitiveness is really important and therefore being more parsimonious in regulation. I think both France and Germany they aren't agreeing on much these days, but they have agreed that they want the supply chain, new supply chain legislation and due diligence to be brought in slightly more slowly and with a bit for a few more, a few fewer constraints. So I think that's probably a step in the right direction, just being a bit more parsimonious on regulation as well as trying to deliver on the Capital Markets Union.

Speaker 1:

Thank you very much, charles Litchfield, the Deputy Director of the Geoeconomic Center for the Atlantic Council. Charles, thanks for your time. Thank you, thank you very much. Good, okay, great Conference has literally just ended and I managed to grab this gentleman. We're very excited to have someone who was a panelist with me at the Central Bank and Sovereign Wealth Fund Forum, harry Vikstedt, who's the Senior Director for Financial Markets Department at the Bank of Canada. Harry, it's great to have you along. It's rare that I get the opportunity to pick the braids of a central banker about these topics, which, of course, fundamentally revolve around central banks. Now, you must have been very pleased. I'm sure you were sitting there smiling as the last panel talking about innovation couldn't speak highly enough about the Canadian collateral management system, ccms, and the way that's developing back home. Tell us more about it, because this is really fundamental to your plans to sort of redesign the collateral and the repo markets in Canada.

Speaker 4:

Yes, thank you very much. Yeah, CCMS will revolutionize the Canadian repo market. So we're basically taking the Canadian repo market from the last century to this century and making it available for a much wider range of market participants. So it will be transformative, but it does take time.

Speaker 1:

And on that front there is a big thing, isn't there about the efficiency of capital markets, the efficiency of repo markets? Right now it seems everyone the US, europe, canada as well is focusing on this. Tell us more about it. I mean, in Canada you're taking a different approach. The EU has talked about the Capital Markets Union. In the US, obviously, there's some uncertainty about the mandatory clearing of US treasuries and those kinds of domestic developments. What about in Canada? How are you approaching increased efficiency Canada?

Speaker 4:

how are you approaching increased efficiency. Well, I mean, this is very much kind of an industry-led initiative. The bank is very much involved in this and I think the key point that I even made at the panel discussion is to have all the stakeholders involved. It is very much a collaborative effort to try and improve the efficiency of the financial system.

Speaker 1:

Now you in Canada have been heavily involved in the reform of the repo market and changing legal structures and modernizing the market. When it comes to the EU, with the focus on the Capital Markets Union, there's a huge challenge. There isn't there for the 20 countries of the euro system to sort of come together with sort of regulatory harmonization. I mean, what would be your advice to anyone listening who's operating in the EU about how to speed up that reform process?

Speaker 4:

process. I think it's so much more complex than the Canadian situation because obviously we have one country, a limited number of stakeholders, it's relatively a limited number of banks, limited number of buy-side participants, so it's easy to get everybody in the same room. Obviously, in the euro system you have a lot more countries, you have a lot, lot more banks, you have a lot more stakeholders. So it is. It is a much more complex situation, but I mean it is trying to get the key stakeholders to communicate, and communication and being clear and transparent and I think sometimes people need to kind of adjust to a common solution. People don't always get what they want. But I think the clear message on some of the panel discussions, even today, was standardization and the more you can do standardization. That does help create efficiency.

Speaker 1:

One final question I've got to ask which is digital currency at a central bank level? Do you think that's moving on? Will we see that emerging?

Speaker 4:

Well, I mean, that's not my area of focus, but obviously the bank has been similar to other central banks, has been involved in digital currencies, especially from a kind of a wholesale perspective. I think clearly the message at this conference is that it is something that's coming. The question is, is it in the next couple of years? Is it five years? Is it 10 years? But I mean, I think there's definitely a future for a much more DLT-based system. That requires a central bank digital currency and we'll see which countries are the first to spearhead that. But obviously the bank is looking at that, as are every other central bank.

Speaker 1:

And will you be coming again next year? I was worried on our panel that we'd all be replaced by AI by then, but you'll be coming back next year. You don't think they'll be sending a robot in your place?

Speaker 4:

Hopefully I'll be coming back next year. We'll see what the conference agenda looks like, but this was an amazing conference and a great opportunity to network with both central bank peers as well as market participants.

Speaker 1:

They may replace me with a robot, but certainly not you, of course. I'd like to say a huge thank you to Harry Vixen, senior Director of Financial Markets Department at the Bank of Canada. Harry, thank you. Thank you very much. Okay, and joining us here live fresh from the stage, and he's very kindly given me a few minutes before he hits the coffee stand, which he has earned with an absolutely storming presentation. It's James Pomeroy, global Economist at HSBC. James, thank you. Now, a big theme of the last couple of days has been talking about capital markets, the complexity facing Europe in 2025. You just painted a picture. As you said, you've got to explain everything that's going to happen in the future in 20 minutes for the audience. What were the biggest topics that you felt you needed to land today?

Speaker 5:

It's really about policy uncertainty. Everyone knows about the US uncertainty. We don't know what's going to happen with tariffs and tax cuts and energy and all of those things in the US. But the US growth outlook looks good as far as we're concerned. But there's also a lot of uncertainty in China Now. We don't know exactly the policy outlook there in terms of how much stimulus goes into that economy. But also in Europe, we need to see consumers get their wallets out and start spending and I think those three elements give a very uncertain backdrop in 2025. Very, very hard to sort of know exactly what's going to happen on all three of them, but if you get the right side, of them, the economy could do quite well.

Speaker 1:

Well, we heard a lot about the geopolitics, geopolitical challenges facing the world in the next year and last week, of course, Ursula von der Leyen was talking about the weaponization of supply chains and the creation of the Savings and Investments Union, or the Capital Markets Union, which has been a challenge for the EU for a while. You were talking about the differences, really, and different trajectories between US savings and spending versus EU spending. We still have 10% to 15% of GDP in savings deposits. Do you think it's realistic? Are we going to get out there and start spending more money here in the EU?

Speaker 5:

I think the thing you need to see is confidence picking up. That's the difference. American consumers have got that confidence. They love going out and spending money. They feel like they're going to have more money, so they spend, whereas in Europe, over the course of the last few years, you haven't seen that. You've got a lot of pessimism, a lot of nervousness amongst households. Maybe it's worries about jobs, maybe it's worried about geopolitics, I don't know what it is, but European households aren't spending. But what it means is there's this almost hidden potential that could unlock at some point, and when it does, you could see much stronger growth across Europe in the coming years. And on that, front.

Speaker 1:

we have seen some success stories. Of course we know Spain has had a good year for growth, largely driven by consumption, and that's linked to tourism. Of course, you made some interesting remarks about American tourism really really propping up some of the economies that have been seen as success stories here. And of course you're a Newcastle fan, so discretionary spending. You can't get Newcastle tickets. I once saw Newcastle play man U and there were empty seats everywhere and they were giving them away. It was Shearer's last match. Actually. It was a fantastic match. He absolutely shamed Ronaldo, not with his speed, but with his savvy. Are you going to be getting Newcastle tickets this year, or is that where the spending's booming in the UK?

Speaker 5:

That's where the spending's booming. I'm going to one match this season and that's what I'm going to get my hands on. It's so hard to get tickets for football, it's so hard to get tickets for shows. It's every flight you get on, every hotel you go to is full, full full, and that's where people are spending their money. Now, really, you can see this clearly of American tourists coming to Europe spending a lot of money using that strong dollar, using that high income they've got spending it in Europe. But European spending a little bit of money in those areas are still very hard to get those tickets, and I use football as an example. But it's true, getting tickets to watch Newcastle United is. They're like gold dust at the moment, even for what people would say are sort of boring standard Premier League fixtures. There is so much demand for some areas of the economy right now, even amongst a sort of maybe a more benign consumer outlook, across the whole of Europe.

Speaker 1:

So across the EU, new prime ministers freshly elected over half the world went to the polls last year. They're all going to be trying to get Taylor Swift basically to go on tour again and visit them. What about the big political challenge? Inflation? That seems to be the number one issue inflation and debt management. Tell us a bit more about that. You were very positive in your view of inflation for 2025-26.

Speaker 5:

Yeah, inflation has broadly come down across the board and the bit that gives me a little bit more encouragement is the US, where you've had strong growth but inflation has still come down and I think we're seeing more signs in many more economies of that inflation outlook looking a lot better. You've seen a drop in the sort of sequential data, monthly inflation looking brighter. Don't get me wrong. There's a load of uncertainties out there about energy prices, food prices, tariffs etc. But broadly that underlying story is starting to look quite a lot nicer on the inflation front and that should be good news for governments who have just come into power and say, look, aren't we? Fantastic Inflation has come down. In reality, very little to do with their policy choices.

Speaker 1:

So, looking ahead, we should probably address the climate a little bit. This again major challenge Financing the sort of green transition is obviously politically very controversial, Economically speaking. You're very strong on representing just how far China has come in a short period of time. This feels like there is hope for Europe. Perhaps less so for America if you have a big change in policy direction there, but it feels like the climate challenge can be met, but also oil production is still going to remain high.

Speaker 5:

Yeah, this is sort of an odd world where actually we've seen in China huge, huge progress on their renewable investments. That's helping to change global supply of both energy but also the products needed. So it's making the economics much more sensible for businesses and households here in Europe or in the US to put solar panels in or wind farms in, or you name it, and that helps to drive that increase in global energy. Also, oil output will probably stay high. The US is going to keep producing oil. If Donald Trump gets his way In Saudi, we expect oil output to stay high to fund all of these upcoming mega projects. That combination of increased supply and maybe some lower demand, particularly out of China because of that much more increased domestic production, could help to put downward pressure on energy prices in the coming years, and I don't think that's something people are spending enough time thinking about.

Speaker 1:

So tell us about your view on AI. Is it going to be the game changer? Everyone thinks you made a very interesting remark about Excel, which is my own. I dislike Excel possibly more than any other. Sorry, microsoft, if you're listening, but I've never loved it. You say AI could be in a similar zone to that.

Speaker 5:

Yeah, essentially, ai has so much potential, but we're unlikely to really get the most out of it because businesses are not going to invest in it quick enough, they're not going to train people to use it quick enough and, as a result, you're not going to get the full benefits. Now we do think you'll get a productivity increase from AI, but you need to think about technological change, not just in terms of putting it into systems. You need to change the way you do business around it and for me, if you keep to a world where people are working 40-hour weeks, we're all spending loads of times in meetings and we're all wasting time during our day-to-day what's the point? You need to embrace technology by having fundamental change in the way we work, and for now, we're not looking like we're going to get. So I'm a little bit more pessimistic in a lot of people in terms of the AI impact on productivity, which I think will be much smaller than a lot of people are expecting.

Speaker 1:

So what's your good news? Sun on the horizon rising up. Is it Newcastle for the Cup? And what's going to be the big cup win for the EU economy?

Speaker 5:

Well, if Newcastle were to win the Cup, that would change my personal spending behavior quite a lot. But I think there's this huge upside risks out there. Everyone talks about the pessimism and the downside risks and don't get me wrong, they're clearly there. But you've got a situation where interest rates are coming down, labor markets are still tight, households got money in their pockets. If we start to see some of that spending being unleashed, if businesses start to get optimistic and start spending, things can improve in 2025. And that's my optimistic take on things.

Speaker 1:

James. Thank you for basically everyone's going to go and sleep better tonight, certainly in the securities markets, listening to the show. James Pomeroy, global Economist at HSBC. Thank you, wonderful. Thanks. Very much, christian. So we're coming to the end now of the GFF Summit recorded live here. Great interviews are grabbed over the last couple of days.

Speaker 2:

And, of course, all eyes now are on GFF 2026, for next year's 30th GFF Summit.

Speaker 1:

That is it here for our live recording. In Luxembourg, I'm going to jump into your high ESG scoring electric vehicle and you're going to race me back with a zero carbon footprint to the airport so I can then fly back. Uh, I've offset my carbon miles, by the way, if you're listening. So I I like so many of the attendees here I did the carbon offsetting, uh, as we're encouraged to do so. It's a very green event. It got a green award this year again. Uh, so we're, we're doing our best. I'm going to go back to the uk and next time we will be in the virtual studio with some very special guests. Fingers crossed, stay tuned. It's the season finale of season three and it's going to be a corker. And in the meantime, from me, andrew keith walker, and from my co-host, mr christian rossler yes, andrew, and my car is, uh bought in the us and not bought in china there you go.

Speaker 1:

Yes, that's good. Just a little message for elon Musk if he's listening. And in the meantime, from us here and everyone at Clearstream, don't forget to check out our LinkedIn feed. There is loads of content under the hashtag hashtag GFF Summit, so check it out. There's videos, there's photos. You can see all the attendees. Make sure you join us at linkedincom slash company, slash Clearstream, where you can connect with everyone, uh, who's been, probably in this show at least, and if not, you can connect with everyone, uh, who's been on the season so far. And in the meantime, uh, we will see you in a month. Bye, and don't forget. This podcast has been brought to you by clear stream banking and features members of the clear stream team and special guests, uh, expressing their personal opinions, not the opinions of clear stream as an organization. There's no representation made as to the accuracy of completeness of information in this podcast and is in no way meant to be taken as legal, tax or other financial advice.